Ireland’s national debt has reached €200 billion and could climb to €250bn by the 2030s, according to the head of the National Treasury Management Agency.
The warning will be delivered to the Oireachtas Committee of Public Accounts by NTMA chief executive Frank O’Connor, who is expected to describe the projected figure as a “very high-level indebtedness” that “carries risk”.
The NTMA, which manages the State’s borrowing and public assets, will tell TDs and senators that Ireland’s debt burden has grown dramatically since the agency was established 35 years ago.
Mr O’Connor is expected to say the NTMA managed debt of around €30 billion when it first began operations — a figure that was considered high at the time.
He will warn that debt managers cannot afford to become complacent, stressing that the State’s ability to continue servicing its debt remains critical.
According to Mr O’Connor, years of historically low interest rates driven by quantitative easing policies helped make borrowing significantly cheaper for governments around the world, including Ireland.
That period allowed the NTMA to secure long-term borrowing at favourable rates and reduce annual servicing costs.
The committee will hear that the cost of servicing Ireland’s debt stood at €3.2 billion in 2024, down around 60% from a peak of €8 billion in 2013.
Mr O’Connor is expected to say the NTMA “took advantage of the low-interest rate era by locking in low borrowing costs for long terms” and also borrowed early while rates remained low.
However, he will warn that the era of ultra-cheap borrowing has now ended.
“The benefits of borrowing at low fixed rates will recede, as these lower-cost debts gradually mature and are replaced with more expensive debt,” he is expected to tell the committee.
“We also have to be prepared for rates potentially rising further and the additional costs that would come with that.”
The committee hearing will also examine a major fraud incident involving the NTMA and the Ireland Strategic Investment Fund, which the agency oversees.
Members will hear that the NTMA has so far recovered only €2.5 million of the €5m stolen during a sophisticated voice phishing scam last summer.
The fraud reportedly involved a fake invoice and voice impersonation designed to appear as a legitimate payment request from a third party connected to an ISIF investment.
Mr O’Connor will reiterate that the NTMA’s own IT systems were not breached during the incident.
An independent forensic investigation carried out by Deloitte has since been completed and reviewed alongside the Comptroller and Auditor General.
According to the NTMA, additional safeguards and enhanced controls were introduced immediately after the fraud was discovered in an effort to prevent similar attacks in future.
“Deloitte’s investigation also recommended certain key measures to increase protection against similar financial crime risks, which we have implemented in full,” Mr O’Connor is expected to say.
The NTMA says efforts to recover the remaining stolen funds are continuing.
