Independent presidential candidate Catherine Connolly has strengthened her lead in the race for the Áras, according to a new Business Post/Red C poll, which shows her support rising sharply to 44%, up eight points from the last survey conducted less than two weeks ago.
Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys remains unchanged on 25%, while Jim Gavin, who withdrew from the contest but whose name remains on the ballot, has slipped to 10%. The share of undecided voters has fallen to 21%, down six points.
When those undecided are excluded, the poll gives Connolly a commanding 55%, compared to 34% for Humphreys and 11% for Gavin. The online survey of 1,012 people was carried out between 16 and 21 October, with a margin of error of ±3%.
Both leading candidates continued their final campaign efforts on Wednesday. Heather Humphreys canvassed across Cork and Clare, beginning at South Mall, before visiting the Arts and Heritage Centre in Mitchelstown and speaking to voters in Ennis. Meanwhile, Catherine Connolly toured Monaghan, Cavan, Athlone and Mullingar, where she was joined by campaigners and Palestine activists.
At a rally in Monaghan, Connolly dismissed any suggestion that she was assuming victory, saying she was taking “nothing for granted.” She added: “It will be an absolute privilege if the people of Ireland elect me when they cast their vote on Friday. I am canvassing the rest of the day and tomorrow.”
Connolly acknowledged the demanding pace of the campaign, joking: “I think we had three hours’ sleep last night. I’m not complaining, I’m simply explaining that that is the nature of the campaign.”
If successful, she said her victory would “send a very positive message” to the Government, highlighting a “gap between what the Government are seeing and what people are seeing on the ground.” She continued: “People are crying out for honesty, integrity and for a different vision for the country.”
The Galway West TD has been backed by Sinn Féin and several smaller parties. Michelle O’Neill, Northern Ireland’s First Minister and Sinn Féin vice president, joined Connolly in Monaghan, saying the campaign had “given people hope.” O’Neill added: “It marks a new beginning in Irish politics. You’ve reminded everybody what politics is about — the service of people, giving people hope.”
O’Neill also reiterated Sinn Féin’s long-held stance that this should be “the last Irish presidential vote in which people from Northern Ireland are not permitted to vote.”
Meanwhile, Fine Gael Director of Elections Martin Heydon condemned “wedge politics at its worst” after a surge of online abuse targeting Humphreys’ family and background. “I’ve read very sinister comments about Heather Humphreys, her family, her culture, her tradition — it’s wedge politics at its worst,” he said, calling for respect and unity in the closing days of the campaign.
The presidential election takes place this Friday, with final polling expected to indicate whether Connolly’s momentum will carry her all the way to Áras an Uachtaráin.
The final presidential debate, broadcast two days ago, brought the campaign to a close with an intense but measured exchange between Catherine Connolly and Heather Humphreys. The 70-minute debate delved deeply into the key issues that have shaped the race — from political independence and government accountability to Ireland’s international stance — giving voters one last opportunity to assess the two remaining contenders before Friday’s vote.
Throughout the programme, Connolly leaned into her message of “integrity and change,” positioning herself as the independent voice Ireland needs in the Áras. She spoke at length about rebuilding public trust in politics, arguing that “people are crying out for honesty, integrity and a different vision for the country.” Her exchanges with the host and her rival were calm but firm, underscoring her belief that the presidency should be free from party influence.
Heather Humphreys, representing Fine Gael, sought to reframe the narrative, stressing her experience in public service and her commitment to unity. She argued that the role of President must remain “above party politics,” and repeatedly highlighted her record in government. At times, Humphreys pressed Connolly on her alignment with Sinn Féin, questioning whether such backing could compromise her independence — a charge Connolly firmly denied.
Observers noted that while the debate was spirited, neither candidate delivered a decisive moment that shifted the race’s dynamic. Connolly appeared confident but careful, occasionally using phrases like “when I win” that prompted questions about complacency — comments she later clarified on the campaign trail, saying she was “absolutely not taking it for granted.” Humphreys, meanwhile, fought to regain momentum but struggled to land a breakthrough that could close the widening polling gap.
By the end of the evening, the debate had reinforced what many voters already believed about both contenders: Connolly as the insurgent independent running on conviction and connection, and Humphreys as the steady establishment figure warning against political fragmentation. With just one day to go before ballots open, the debate crystallised the stark choice facing voters — continuity or change — but left little doubt about who is heading into the final stretch with the upper hand.
