A new WMO update suggests that there is an 80% chance of an El Niño event during June-August, with a 90% chance that it could continue until November this year.
El Niño is a phenomenon that typically increases global temperatures and drives extreme weather conditions. It usually takes place every two to seven years and could potentially last up to 12 months.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres released a video statement addressing the likelihood that El Niño is headed our way. “The science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed. The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis – ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all," he said.
The sea surface temperature in the central-eastern Equatorial Pacific is used as a monitoring reference, and in late April and May, temperatures approached El Niño threshold. According to the WMO, these increasing surface anomalies are "being fed by unusually warm subsurface conditions across the tropical Pacific, with temperatures exceeding 6 °C above average and providing a substantial reservoir of heat that is contributing to the observed surface warming."
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo states that we need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event. He said: “We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event – which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean. The most recent El Niño, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024."
The WMO will be monitoring conditions over the coming months to then inform governments humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors, as "advance seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities,” said Celeste Saulo.
WMO chief Celeste Saulo said that the world needs to prepare for an El Niño as it could "exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean".
The WMO has stated that climate change does not impact the frequency or intensity of an El Niño event, however it can ampliy the impacts of the event. They have also stated that their forecasts for June-August show "a nearly universal dominance of above normal temperatures in nearly all parts of the globe".
